"On the long-term sustainability of copper, zinc and lead supply, using a system dynamics model."Sverdrup, H. U. and A. H. Olafsdottir (2019). Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X
The long-term supply sustainability of copper, zinc and lead was assessed. Copper will not run into physcal scarcity in the future, but increased demand and decreased resource quality will cause significant price increases. The copper price is suggested to increase significantly in the coming decades. A similar situation applies for zinc and lead with soft scarcity and increased prices for zinc. . The total supply of copper reaches a maximum 2030-2045, zinc 2030-2050 and lead 2025-2030. The copper supply per person and year and decline after 2130, and the copper stock-in-use reaches a maximum in 2050 and decline afterwards. The zinc supply per person per year reach a maximum in 2100 and decline after 2100, and the zinc stock-in use shows a similar pattern. The lead supply per person reach a plateau in 1985, and decline after 2070, whereas the lead stock-in-use reach a plateau in 2080 and decline after 2100. For copper, zinc and lead, scarcity will mainly be manifested as increased metal price, with feedbacks on demand. The predicted price increase will cause recycling to increase in the future. The supply situation for copper would be much improved if the recycling of copper could be strongly promoted through policy means., as well as it would work well to limit the price increases predicted under business-as-usual. Considering the importance of these metals for society, it is essential to set adequate policies for resource efficiency and resource conservation for society.
"Assessing the Long‑Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel."Sverdrup, H. and A. H. Olafsdottir (2019). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality: 29
The integrated systems dynamics model WORLD6 was used to assess long-term supply of stainless steel to society with consideration of the available extractable amount of raw materials. This was done handling four metals simultaneously (iron, chromium, manganese, nickel). We assessed amounts of stainless steel that can be produced in response to demand and for how long, considering the supply of the alloying metals manganese, chromium and nickel. The extractable amounts of nickel are modest, and this puts a limit on how much stainless steel of different qualities can be produced. The simulations indicate that nickel is the key element for stainless steel production, and the issue of scarcity or not depends on how well the nickel supply and recycling systems are managed. The study shows that there is a significant risk that the stainless steel production will reach its maximum capacity around 2055 and slowly decline after that. The model indicates that stainless steel of the type containing Mn–Cr–Ni will have a production peak in about 2040, and the production will decline after 2045 because of nickel supply limitations. Production rates of metals like cobalt, molybdenum, tantalum or vanadium are too small to be viable substitutes for the missing nickel. These metals are limiting on their own as important ingredients for super-alloys and specialty steels and other technological applications. With increased stainless steel price because of scarcity, we may expect recycling to go up and soften the decline somewhat. At recycling degrees above 80%, the supply of nickel, chromium and manganese will be sufficient for several centuries.
"Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in the WORLD6 model for metals, materials and fossil fuels." Sverdrup, H. and A. H. Olafsdottir (2019). Mineral Economics: 31
A model for market price modeling in an integrated global model for resource supply has been developed and successfully applied in the WORLD6 model. A dynamic market and price model has been developed, based on immediately tradable amounts, affected by supply and demand. Real-world drivers and a systems approach with feedbacks in the price setting and market mechanisms were used in this study, without the model becoming too complex. Observed cause and effects and feedbacks were included, in order to have explanatory power or be truer to economic reality in terms of both structure and parameter settings. The model is adaptive from a fully free dynamic market to a biased or oligarchic market, depending on the condition. The market price model was parameterized for copper, zinc, lead, nickel, iron, aluminum, wolfram, niobium, molybdenum, lithium, vanadium, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and tin, and for fossil fuels like oil and hard coal. The equation has the shape: price = k × market amount n , where market amount is the instantly tradable amount of metal in the market arena, k is a metal-specific coefficient, and n is an exponent. The derived equations were applied in the WORLD6 model, making simulations of market price set every day endogenously in the model possible. The price mechanism proposed here perform well in tests against observed data when included in the WORLD6 model. The obtained results were compared to a price curve for coffee and a similar pattern was found.
"Modelling Global Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 Model; Tin."Olafsdottir, A. H. and H. U. Sverdrup (2018). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality3(3): 11
The extraction, supply, market price, and recycling of tin (Sn) were modelled using the WORLD6 model. The model used estimates for primary resources of tin and secondary production from copper, zinc, lead, and wolfram. The resource estimates made resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies for tin. Ultimately recoverable resources amount to 87 million tons, where 20 million tons is primary and the rest are secondary as by-products from refining of wolfram, copper, zinc, and lead from primary mining. The model is able to reconstruct the observed mining, extraction rates, recycling degree, and price histories well. The model outputs illustrate that tin is a finite resource and that there is a risk for supply scarcity unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. Soft scarcity for tin will develop around 2050, i.e. when demand exceeds supply resulting in higher price and then decreases because of higher prices, and convert into hard scarcity around 2150 AD, where the amounts demanded simply cannot be delivered. For tin, there are good substitutes for many uses, but some of them imply some loss in functionality.
"A System Dynamics Model Assessment of the Supply of Niobium and Tantalum Using the WORLD6 Model."Sverdrup, H. U. and A. H. Olafsdottir (2018). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality3(2): 5
The mining, secondary extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals tantalum (Ta) and niobium (Nb) were modelled using the WORLD6 model. The ultimately recoverable resource estimates resulted in significantly larger amounts than earlier studies with a best estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources of about 2 million ton of tantalum and 95 million ton of niobium. There is uncertainty in the resource estimates and they vary in the range from 0.790 million to 2 million ton of tantalum and from 52 million to 160 million ton of niobium. Niobium deposit contents were assessed with respect to extractability, and 56% seems to be extractable. The WORLD6 model outputs show that the use efficiency of these metals will be low unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. A sensitivity analysis was done with respect to resource size and different future demand levels, with significant supply sustainability impacts for niobium from resource size, but little impacts for tantalum. We show that for the amount resource available, price and demand dynamics will have greater impact on supply than resource size above 50 million ton of niobium. Peak production is estimated to take place 2020–2055 for tantalum and niobium. The model suggests that there will be soft scarcity in niobium and hard scarcity in tantalum after 2020–2030 with the present regime of recycling. The niobium and tantalum extraction and ore grades were modelled with good success when tested against observed data.
"A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Molybdenum and Rhenium Used for Super-alloys and Specialty Steels, Using the WORLD6 Model."Sverdrup, H. U., et al. (2018). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality3(3): 7
The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals molybdenum and rhenium were modelled using an integrated system dynamics model. The resource estimates made here resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies for molybdenum. Present molybdenum resources are about 75–80 million ton and about 7 million ton has been mined to date. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) for molybdenum are about 65 million in primary resources and about 45 million ton in secondary sources, a total of about 111 million ton, and after considering technical extractability, evaluating several hundred different geological deposits, the extractable amount is about 90 million ton. For rhenium, URR is about 21,000 ton contained in mostly in molybdenum and copper, but some come from nickel, wolfram and platinum group metal ores. The model outputs show that molybdenum and rhenium are finite resources, and that they may become exhausted unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved. Peak production is estimated to take place in 2060 for molybdenum and rhenium, with peak in stocks-in-use around 2090. The molybdenum and rhenium recycling rates are generally low. Both market intervention mechanisms and governance incentives should be used to increase recycling. The metal extraction and ore grades were modelled with good success when tested against observed data. The model predicts a significant decline in molybdenum supply after 2100 under the present demand combined with the present regime of recycling. The supply situation for rhenium is dependent on the situation applicable for molybdenum ore availability and rhenium recycling rate.
"Modelling Global Wolfram Mining, Secondary Extraction, Supply, Stocks-in-Society, Recycling, Market Price and Resources, Using the WORLD6 System Dynamics Model."Sverdrup, H. U., et al. (2017). BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality2(3): 11
The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metal wolfram (W) were modelled using a wolfram submodule developed for the WORLD6 system dynamics model. The resource estimates made for wolfram resulted in significantly larger estimates than earlier studies (URR = 28 million ton in 2015, where at least 24 million ton is in primary ore and about 2 million ton is secondary resources). The model can well reconstruct the observed extraction rates and price histories. The model outputs demonstrate that wolfram is a finite resource and that there is a risk for supply scarcity, unless the degree of recycling will be significantly improved from the present level. The model outputs suggest that there will be a soft scarcity around 2030 and hard scarcity after 2200. When pictured as supply per person per year or stocks-in-use, there will be a supply problem in the distant future. There are substitutes for some applications, but for some key uses there are none that are optimal. Without wolfram, several advanced technologies seen as important at the present time will become difficult to produce.