Dr. Baldur Thorhallsson

The Conservative leader, Bjarni Benediktsson, fails to form a government with centre right Renaissance party and the centrist party - Bright Future.  The Icelandic President is most likely to give the leader of the Left Green Movement or the leader of the Renaissance a chance to form a majority government.

A coalition government has not yet been formed in Iceland. Here are eleven factors that need to be considered:

1. There are elements within the Left-Greens which are open to a coalition government with the Independence Party.
2. When given the chance, the new classically liberal party Viðreisn opted to look to the right when the first numbers came in on election night, as opposed to look towards forming a five-party left-wing coalition.
3. Bright Future immediately splintered from the leftwing coalition that had been tentatively formed prior to election.
4. Bright Future and Viðreisn look prepared to form a classically liberal coalition.
5. Most party leaders do not trust the Pirate Party to sit with them in government or defend a minority government.
6. The Pirate Party are prepared to defend the minority coalition government of the Left-Greens, Bright Future and Viðreisn.
7. The pre-election leftwing coalition collapsed immediately when the first numbers came in.
8. It appears as if the leader of the Independence Party is willing to give the leader of the Left-Greens time to consider a coalition government.
9. The President is likewise giving the leader of the Left-Greens time to consider a coalition government.
10. The Independence Party appears far more willing to work with the Left-Greens and the Progressive Party than Viðreisn and Bright Future.
11. The desire of Viðreisn to form a government with the Independence Party has given the Independence Party the keyplayer role in the negotiations to form the next government, and appears to be most willing to work with the Left-Greens and the Progressive Party.

Trump is the President-Elect. He narrowly defeated Clinton, primarily because of the support of the white working class, and the 'coming home' of undecideds (many of whom were wary Republicans). It is extremely hard to predict what he will do once in office, but his stated positions drastically differ from those of other mainstream American politicians.

Me and the First Lady of Iceland at the US Embassy in Iceland's election night gathering:

The winners of the Icelandic parliamentary election are the Pirate Party, Viðreisn and the Left-Greens. The Independence Party did extremely well, in light of their polling leading up to the election and the fact that they encountered splintering in the lead-up to the election. Viðreisn and the Pirate Party will likely play key roles in the formation of the next coalition government, but there are many possible governments. The Social Democratic Alliance suffered significant losses, which can perhaps be explained by the party's failure to implement its policies during its six years in government (2007-2013).

Interviews on election day and the days that followed:

TV:

• 30.10.2016, Stöð 2 - Kvöldfréttir
• 30.10.2016, Stöð 2 - Hádegisfréttir
• 30.10.2016, RÚV - Aukafréttatími

Radio:

• 31.10.2016, RÚV in Morgunútvarpið
• 31.10.2016, RÚV in Morgunvaktin
• 30.10.2016, RÚV in Helgarútgáfan

Web:

• 31.10.2016, visir.is - Getu­leysi og for­sjár­hyggja bana­biti Sam­fylkingarinnar
• 31.10.2016, visir.is - Tillaga Pírata um minnihlutastjórn á borðinu ef illa gengur að mynda meirihluta
• 31.10.2016, dv.is - Baldur um Oddnýju: „Hún á ekki nokkra framtíð fyrir sér sem formaður flokksins“
• 31.10.2016, visir.is - Hvorki kollsteypur né óbreytt ástand
• 30.10.2016, vb.is - Sterk staða Viðreisnar
• 30.10.2016, visir.is - Stjórnarsamstarf Vinstri grænna og Sjálfstæðisflokksins mögulegt
• 30.10.2016, mbl.is - „Viðreisn í al­gerri lyk­il­stöðu“

1. Far-Right populist parties do not appear to have any significant support in Iceland, unlike in our Nordic neighbors.
2. A radical party desiring to undertake major reforms of the Icelandic political system does have major support.
3. The Social Democratic Alliance is on the brink of collapsing. Social Democrats have seen a significant decline in support across the Nordic states, and Iceland is no exception.
4. A leftwing party dominates the left spectrum in Icelandic politics, which is inconsistent with the rest of the Nordic states where the Social Democrats tend to dominate the left spectrum.
5. A pro-European liberal centre-right party appears likely to take a few parliamentary seats in this election, which is largely unprecedented in Iceland but not in the Nordic states.
6. The conservative Independence Party is struggling. The party no longer dominates political discourse in Icelandic politics.
7. The electorate appears likely to punish the incumbent government for the third election in a row.
8. Both the Independence Party and Social Democratic Alliance have splintered, with Viðreisn departing from the Independence Party, and Bright Future departing from the Social Democratic Alliance.
9. The centrist parties are struggling, which is consistent with international trends.
10. The traditional four parties have lost a lot of support to newer parties, which reflects similar trends in the rest of Europe.
11. According to polls, the next government may possibly be comprised of a radical reform party, an old traditional left-green party and two weak social democratic parties. That would be a coalition government without precedent in Icelandic history.

See interview on Hringbraut (available on Youtube).

Surveys indicate that there is large uncertainty that the current opposition in Parliament will earn a sufficient majority in the parliamentary elections to form a government.

The Icelandic parliamentary elections are getting international attention. Foreign media are interested in the Pirate Party in particular. See, for instance, this Le Monde piece that I was interviewed for.

The 2016 parliamentary elections look set to be a major shake-up in the Icelandic political system, as the radical and young Pirate Party is likely to be one of the major winners, and a new liberal centre-right party, Viðreisn, seems likely to do well. Interestingly, amid this shake-up of the Icelandic political party system, Iceland has not seen the emergence of a successful far-right party.

The leaked Panama Papers led to large protests in Iceland, resignation of the Prime Minister and early general elections being called at the end of this month as part of the government renewing its coalition. Even if the economy has recovered significantly since the financial crisis in 2008, opinion polls seem to indicate some turmoil among the voters.
In parallel with the continent, fringe parties enjoy great support according to opinion polls. In contrast with the continent, however, the swing votes do not go to the far-right but to the Pirate Party, an anti-establishment party with roots in the unrest created by the crisis. Another emerging entity is a liberal pro-EU splinter-group from the traditionally largest conservative party. Either one could be in a controlling position following elections. These issues and several others were addressed in my talk for French officials, journalists and ambassadors at the Icelandic Embassy in Paris recently.